• Dowling & Partners

    ALL INSURANCE.
    ALL THE TIME.

    Comprised of 15 analysts, our Equity Research team is in constant contact with management of both public and private companies to keep our clients abreast of industry trends and new developments. Our boutique model of “all insurance, all the time” allows our dedicated five person sales team to respond to our client’s needs quickly and provide timely access to senior research analysts. 

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    The Frequency Conundrum. ALL & Geico see what others don't

    While auto loss cost frequency is clearly increasing, the magnitude has varied by company.  ALL and GEICO saw worse frequency trends which stood out against peers.  The cause of increased frequency remains somewhat unknown and it is unclear if this is the start to a steady rise of if frequency will settle at current levels.  Regardless, both ALL & GEICO, some of the faster growing companies in the market, are on a path to increase rates.  This will serve to benefit Progressive and other large writers, at least in the near term.  See IBNR #29, 2015 for more details

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    d&p 2017 initial earnings estimates

    Our models have been updated to include our initial 2017 estimates.  Broadly, we have taken a more conservative view as compared to the street, with over 2/3rds of our companies below current consensus estimates where available.  Our models along with updated thesis sheets are now available.  
    Looking out into 2017, we see continued rate softening as being likely and while there may be some unique situations at individual companies where some improvement might still be squeezed out, the average company is likely to see rising loss ratios through 2016 and 2017.  See IBNR UNDERCOVERage #25, 2015 for more details.

     

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    2015 (re)insurance "roadmap"... our annual updated implications for wind season

    With the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season now underway, and the 6/1 property cat renewal date for the "peak zone," we review all things hurricane-season related.  As part of our annual reinsurance roadmap, we take a closer look at the impact of the lack of major hurricane losses on earnings/TVC for our composite = both earnings (post tipping point) & capital management have been benefitted, adding ~3pts annually to TVC since 2006.  See IBNR #20 for more detail