• Dowling & Partners


    Comprised of 15 analysts, our Equity Research team is in constant contact with management of both public and private companies to keep our clients abreast of industry trends and new developments. Our boutique model of “all insurance, all the time” allows our dedicated five person sales team to respond to our client’s needs quickly and provide timely access to senior research analysts. 


    With ajit out, aon's london market "facility 2.0" becomes "aon client treaty"

    Following Ajit Jain's notice of non-renewal, global broker Aon has been in discussions with underwriters for months to restructure/replace Berkshire's 7.5% "ETF"/quota share of Aon's business @ Lloyd's.  As we've long suggested, having "validated" the program with Berkshire's AA paper, any new Aon facility would likely: (1) be larger (2) include higher commissions to Aon & (3)  be lower rated.  We don't believe "facilities"/indexes are simply a "soft market" manifestation.  See our full report


    Cyclical trends likely to move further against (re)insurers in 2016

    As we enter 2016, there remains several significant cyclical factors that are likely to pressure reported results going forward: (1) low interest rates = meaningful increases in average portfolio yields for P/C (re)insurers appear unlikely in the near future; (2) Underwriting conditions should be more challenging going forward; & (3) Strong reserve releases over the last few years combined with less conservative initial AY 'picks", should result in a lower benefit to reported earnings in the future.  These factors, combined with the continuing excess capital, are likely to pressue "modled returns" for most (re)insurers in our coverage composite.  See IBNR #1, 2016 



    Mortgage insurance 2016 outlook & q4;15 preview: stocks oversold & present compelling return opps

    In our opinion, fair value multiple compression could be argued due to pricing concerns and additional credit uncertainty, but at such steep discounts to still strong return prospects, we believe that private MIs are materially oversold.  At current levels we believe that ESNT, MTG, and RDN offer significant upside to investors over the next year as credit continues to improve, pricing worries abate, and better prospects for 2017 & 2018 gain more clairity. See our full report